Last Week Forecast Result:

We forecasted as per best/worst case upto ~11.5k cases average per day and we have recorded about 11k daily average cases for last week. Our best/worst case scenario last week was to reach upto ~3.32lakh by Sunday and reached 3.33lakh. Predicted upto 3.67lakh by Wednesday and we are at 3.60lakh at the time of this post and expected to reach beyond 3.67lakh by end of day. We also predicted we could likely see upto ~12.5 cases single day high and we had seen 12.03 highest so far on 13th June

Last Week..

This week forecast India🇮🇳 update:

✅Best case & ❌Worst-case scenario:
Daily ⏰Cases Average: 10.5k best case or 11.5k worst case
Sunday 31st May – 3.28 lakh best case or 3.32 lakh worst case
Wednesday – 3.6 lakh best case or 3.67 lakh worst case
We are mostly leaning towards worst case over the past few weeks where cases continue to rise at ~1.2 times week on week basis. We could likely see upto ~12.5k single day spikes this week.

🇮🇳India Facts:

Average Test Rate - ~1.42lakh per day from 1.33lakh the week before. India Tests per million reaches 4.49k from previous week 3.74k
Confirmed Cases:continues at Rank 3. Also reported highest single day numbers 12039 (77.16k cases compared to 67.55k week before) Growth Rate at 1.14 times compared to last week.
Deaths:continues at Rank 4 same as the week before. 2427 Deaths recorded compared to 1865 week before
Recovered Cases:moves up to Rank 4 in top recovered. 50k Compared to 33k recovered the week before.
Top 3:
⛔Maharashtra reported highest single day cases of ~3607. Total of 22.25k compared to 18.5k week before.
✅Tamil Nadu continues at 2nd with daily average increased to ~1896 compared to ~1390 before. Total of 13.27k compared to 9.7k week before. Their highest single day cases recorded 1989.
📛Delhi moves down to 3rd with total of 12.88k cases compared to 9.1k week before and daily average of ~1840 cases recorded this week. It has peaked to ~2224 cases on single day last week
UP and AP moves up in rank in Top 10
📛Maharashtra (959) and Delhi – 526 reporting highest deaths followed by Gujarat(226). Haryana, UP, TN, Rajasthan trending in deaths
✅Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi in Top 3 recovered states. Haryana, Bihar, UP, Karnataka, West Bengal are all trending in recovery cases.
Weekly State Trend Charts:
🔺Upswing: Ladakh, Telangana, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh,Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim reporting more than 1.5 times the cases reported last week. Goa cases spike from 26 cases week before to 452 cases
✅Downswing: Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, J&K have reported lesser cases compared to last week.

🌏World Facts:🌎

Brazil🇧🇷 ,US🇺🇸 &India in top 3 for Top Growth last week.🇧🇷Brazil cases continue similar to week before incrementally topping the charts for confirmed cases.

🔺India stays at 3rd place. Cases increased 1.14 times the week before.
🔺Saudi Arabia and South Africa moves up into Top 10
🔺China has reported about 183 cases its highest weekly reported for a long time. Also resurgence of cases causing alarm.
✅Brazil🇧🇷 US, Russia in Top 3 for Recovered cases. India, Pakistan and South Africa reported more than 1.5 times recoveries compared to week before
⛔Brazil🇧🇷,US🇺🇸,Mexico in Top 3 in terms of Deaths.
⛔Chile reported 3.27 times more deaths (1151) compared to week before (352)
📛UpSwing Countries week on week comparison: 📛
Confirmed Cases: Honduras,Gabon,Bulgaria,Nigeria,Cote d'Ivoire,France,Ethiopia,Mauritania,Panama,Kazakhstan,Bolivia
Deaths: Iraq,Egypt,Peru,Indonesia,India,South Africa,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Bangladesh,Colombia,Pakistan,Ecuador,Russia
Recovered: Oman,Gabon,Afghanistan,Panama,Armenia,Philippines,Malaysia,Pakistan,Djibouti,Nepal,Cote d'Ivoire,El Salvador,Singapore,Ecuador,Iraq,Azerbaijan,South Africa,India
Continents Trending: (Ordered by Highest Confirmed cases reported) – Top 30 countries considered.
Many Asian countries cases are trending.

• South America – Bolivia,Argentina,Chile
• Asia – KazakhstanSaudi Arabia,Indonesia,Israel,Turkey,Oman,Nepal,Iraq
• North America – Honduras,Panama,El Salvador,Guatemala,Dominican Republic
• Africa – Gabon,Nigeria,Ethiopia,Mauritania,South Africa,Morocco,Egypt
• Europe – Bulgaria,France,Moldova,Romania,Ukraine

Assumptions: Upswing countries considered minimum 500 cases reported in past week and rate of increase greater than 1.5 times the week before.
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